Does my industry affect my multiple?
Less than owners expect. Sector sets a rough band; size, concentration, revenue quality and owner dependence decide where inside it you land — and that spread is wider than the gap between sectors.
Less than most owners expect. Sector sets a rough band. The spread inside that band is usually wider than the gap between one sector and the next, and it is decided by things specific to your business.
What sector genuinely determines
- How predictable revenue tends to be — subscription models price higher everywhere
- How capital-intensive the business is — heavy capex depresses multiples across a sector
- Whether the sector is consolidating — active acquirers raise prices for everyone
- Regulatory exposure, where a rule change can remove a business model
What it does not determine
Your customer concentration. Your growth rate. Whether the business runs without you. Whether your margin is above or below the sector average. All four move the multiple more than the sector label does, and all four are specific to you.
Where the sector figure is useful
As a starting midpoint, and as a check on your own reasoning. If your analysis puts you three turns above your sector average, you should be able to name exactly which of the four drivers justifies it. If you cannot, the analysis is wrong.
EBITDA multiple explained covers placing yourself inside the band; how recurring revenue affects valuation covers the driver that moves it most.