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DCF

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Article2 min

DCF valuation explained

Discounted cash flow without the spreadsheet mysticism — what the discount rate actually represents, why terminal value is usually most of the answer, and when a DCF is worth building.

Answer1 min

What is terminal value?

Everything beyond the forecast horizon, compressed into one number. In an SME discounted cash flow it is usually 60 to 75 percent of the total valuation.

Answer1 min

Which valuation method is most accurate?

None of them. Accuracy is the wrong frame — the useful method is the one your buyer will use, and for most SME transactions that is an earnings multiple.

Answer1 min

Why do valuation methods give different answers?

Because each encodes different assumptions about the future. The gap is not an error to average away — it is the most useful output of the whole exercise.

Answer1 min

What discount rate should I use?

18 to 25% for an owner-managed SME. Below 12% implies a predictability most small businesses do not have; above 30% usually means the forecast is the problem, not the rate.

Answer1 min

What is a DCF valuation?

A method that forecasts future cash flows and reduces each year by a discount rate reflecting risk. For SMEs, terminal value is usually 60–75% of the answer.