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Evidence

7 pages across every collection.

Article5 min

Customer concentration: what the evidence actually says

One big customer is supposed to cost you a full turn on your multiple. That figure has no source. What the research does show is different, more specific and more useful.

Article5 min

Owner dependence: strong logic, no price data

The best evidence that owners matter comes from 13,000 Danish businesses and a natural experiment nobody designed. It says nothing about your sale price, and it is still the most useful thing here.

Article7 min

The number in the middle that nobody can source

Every risk that supposedly lowers your business value passes through one figure in the discount rate. The profession's own guidance says there is no data source for it.

Article6 min

The private company discount, and the case against it

Being unlisted is supposed to cost you 20 to 30 percent of your value. The published estimates run from zero to fifty, and the best-identified ones cluster far below what practitioners apply.

Article6 min

Size moves your multiple more than anything you control

The best-supported finding in SME valuation is also the least useful advice: bigger businesses sell for more. Here is the evidence, and why the causal version of it is probably wrong.

Article6 min

Where SME multiples actually come from

Every multiple you have read was published by someone selling something. Here is who collects the data, how, and why two datasets covering the same businesses disagree by a factor of two.

Article7 min

What working capital actually costs you in a sale

Advisory content treats the working capital adjustment as where sellers lose a fortune. Across more than a thousand deals the money at stake is about one percent, and the buyer's number usually wins.